As the dawn of the year 2011 breaks it's a great time to ponder the next decade & the changes that might occur & how we prepare our businesses to capture those opportunities. UK farmers are currently struggling with the snow & ice......it makes every task on the farm 10 times more difficult. Its very hard to produce food when conditions are so extreme. At each meal you should thank a farmer for his/her efforts. Mind you its also easy to think only of the present & not look into the future. As the Aussies say (nothing to do with cricket I might point out) "Its hard to think about draining the swamp when you are up to your neck in crocodiles"Over Christmas I've started to read a fascinating new book called "Future Agenda"......basically a worldwide think tank sponsored by Vodafone. I'm very impressed! It's really thought provoking & I recommend either the book or the website...
Most aspects of the Future Agenda impact directly on agriculture & farmers. Looking into the next decade food, food security, our health, water scarcity & the implications of economic growth are all massive issues for grass based thinking dairy farmers.
Recent comments in the UK press regarding "Cows no longer belong on pastures" couldnt be further from the truth. This comment of self interest came unbelievably from the chair person of the North Devon Grasslands society???!!??!!.
The world population is forcast to increase from nearly 7 billion (2010) to 7.7billion by 2010, thats an increase of 750million. How are those extra people going to eat? What will they eat? What ability do the world's farmers have of producing enough food???? Serious questions! Especially as most Govt intervention has a negative impact on food supplies eg USA & Europe's push for bio energy.
There will be an accelerating shift in economic power to Asia. Increasing economic growth means people eat more food (especially protein) & they waste more food too. As GDP per capita rises so does water demand. China is already short of clean water. Good water supplies are essential to farmers & food supplies. By 2025 2/3 of the world will be living in water stressed regions. Climate warming predictions include southern England as a water stressed region!!!
Water is often taken for granted in the UK. We are indeed fortunate to currently have adequate water. You only have to visit a country like Australia to realise that both Govt policy & individuals are more conscious of water & strategies to reduce wastage. Agriculture must adapt to lower water use.Water is the key to agriculture & to a healthy nation. China is particularly vulnerable. The price of water does not reflect the true economic value....this distorts our understanding of the importance of water. It is shocking that the UK loses 3.3billion litres of clean water per day thru leakages!
Water scarcity is forcast to have a severe impact during the next decade.
With a rapidly increasing world population who cant feed itself we in Britain & UK grass based dairy farmers have a massive opportunity as we have the soil, the water & the expertise but do we have the research backing or the Govt policy to succeed? Pasture based farmers already have a considerable bank of data backing our system, our cows & our environmental management.
The opportunities might well come from producing protein for the world market or by producing healthy food. Grass fed milk has the potential to deliver "Good for You" Foods. (as discussed in the last blog). Pharma foods (vs Farmer foods) are foods with clinically enhanced properties eg probiotics. The challenge for grass based dairy farmers will be to find "Natural" foods that deliver preventative health benefits without becoming a drug. With obesity becoming a serious health problem in the western world dont be surprised if a "fat" tax is put on unhealthy food.
There will be an increasing focus on local food & seasonal foods (not where the supermarkets have been taking us the last few decades!)....the aim will be to better feed more people thru intelligent use of resources such as water, soil, & energy. There is a real opportunity for innovation & new products as well as smart production.
We need to significantly increase global research & investment to get the technical break throughs required for the second agricultural green revolution that will enable us to feed the world. The global food security has worsened not improved & represents a serious risk to world peace & stability.So why is the UK cutting spending on R & D?
Why oh why is DairyCo not at the forefront of R & D for the dairy industry......why the endless delay in starting a productive research program?????
Great leaps forward for tomorrows pasture based dairy farmers will require strong collaboration as innovation rarely occurs in isolation. Both Google & Microsoft have built their business model around Thomas Eddison's very successful "work group" model that produced such amazing technological breakthroughs & innovations eg gramaphone & electric light bulb.
Pasture based dairy farmers need effective onfarm Discussion Groups to push forward & to meet the challenges of the next decade & beyond.
Solar PV in the UK produces energy from Daylight not direct sunlight, so cloud cover will not be prohibitive. Obviously if the sun does shine, then the greater the current that is generated. The electricity that is produced is direct current (DC) this is converted by an inverter to alternating current (AC). 
Check that the shed has the same expected lifetime as the solar PV panels. One of the attractions of Solar PV is that it is a very low maintenance system. 
I would expect shed design to change quite radically to include Solar PV installation. 
There are also computer tracking devises that allow the panel to track the sun. 
Even whole field projects are being considered over 25 year leases/rentals but the ability to export to the National Grid must be considered.
Working with Graham (& ofcourse David Archer) is a unique opportunity to speak to a much broader audience. Approximately 5 million people tune into the BBC Radio 4 each evening.....not only farmers but people who live in villages, towns & cities all over the UK....plus the online listeners. Every one given the opportunity needs to become an ambassador for their industry & profession. Grass fed milk farmers need to all become ambassadors for grass fed milk & the way in which you very efficiently farm.....if you don't or won't......then who will?
Graham kindly arranged the visit to the BBC studios at Birmingham. It was very interesting to watch Kate the producer, the technical staff & actors rehearse & record another episode to go to air shortly. Thank you Kate.
Cow Condition Score (BSC) is a visual assessment (reasonably accurate too) of a cows "energy reserves". There are a number of critical points in the year where these target BSC are very important to milk production, fertility & maybe some animal health issues. The most important of these "criticals" is the Condition Score at calving. Given that most spring cows have now calved we need to look at the next two critical points for BSC.
The second reason I think calf rearing is so important is that there is very good evidence that the weaning weight has a huge influence on heifer weights at mating & at first calving.The Heifer Liveweight Targets need to be set at 90% of mature cow liveweight at first calving. Calves that struggle during the milk feeding stage prior to weaning seem to struggle up to 15 months & often calve down under weight.These heifers then under produce in the first lactation as they are still growing....the risk of not getting back in calf is substantial.
